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Michael Keiner’s Hand Analysis

Published on March 06, 2009 at 21:36
Michael Keiner’s Hand Analysis

"The buy-in was €1,200 and the majority of participants were professional poker players. The tournament format was 'winner takes all', whereby the second and third place winners go away empty-handed. 40,000 chips are in play.

"When there are three of us, the game is as follows: With 20,000 chips, player A is the chip leader, B is somewhat short stacked with 8,000 chips, and I hold 12,000 chips. On the button, I raise the triple big blind to 1,800 with . Player B calls the bet in the small blind, while the chip leader folds.

"Player B is an established, experienced professional Swiss poker player who generally plays quite rigidly but who can act very flexibly, particularly in later stages of the tournament. He is also good at playing risky bluffs. The flop is: . He and I both check. The turn is: . He checks again and now I play 2,000. After a while reflecting, he raises all-in. After careful thought and taking into account his typically rigid player profile, I call the all-in with the top pair and a J kicker. He nods, says "you're good", and shows: . So, he had in fact used that very powerful weapon of a check-raise on the turn as a complete bluff. I had been encouraged to call for the following reasons:

"Firstly, in terms of his chip count, he was already under extreme pressure and was forced to attempt a move as quickly as possible if he wanted to avoid ending up in a completely hopeless position. With the exception of A-A or K-K, I concluded that he did not have another pair; if he had done, he would have already re-raised with this hand preflop.

"Secondly, I was relatively sure that he wouldn't have called my raise preflop with two lower cards, such as suited connectors, either. That just didn't fit his player profile. In this stage of the tournament and at the shorthanded table, he would have also re-raised preflop with A-7 or A-8. That leaves only K-8 or Q-8, which would have provided a logical explanation for the course of the hand. "Considering these factors, calling was the only sensible action to take."

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